Superintendents Report December 12 2022

Superintendent’s Report
  December 12, 2022
Board of Education Meeting
      FALL 2023
ENROLLMENT FORECAST

                      2
                          Enrollment Forecast

• 1-Year Enrollment Forecast by DCSD Staff
  (FY24 Budget)

• The forecast assists various
  departments and schools to:
   • determine needs for next year (e.g.,
     textbooks, portables, buses)
   • inform the number of teachers and staff
     positions that are needed

                                                3
                     Enrollment Forecast Methods

• Modified Cohort-Survival Model
  • Grade Progression Rates
  • Birth Rates
  • Housing Trends


• School Choice and Student Assignment

• COVID-19 Adjustments
                                                   4
Fall 2022 Enrollment
                   • Enrollment this year, as
                     counted on Oct 4, 2022, is
                     92,672.
                   • Enrollment is down -1,031
                     students from last year and
                     -1,028 below forecast.
                   • Continued uncertainty and
                     disruption from COVID-19.




                                                   5
Fall 2023 Enrollment Forecast
                         After modeling new housing
                         developments, birth data, and
                         historic enrollment patterns, the
                         enrollment forecast for October
                         2023 is 91,829 students or down
                         843 from current enrollment.




                                                             6
Fall 2023 Enrollment Forecast
                        1. Elementary enrollment is
                           expected to decrease with a
                           smaller kindergarten
                           entering.
                        2. Middle-school enrollment is
                           expected to decrease with a
                           larger cohort graduating.
                        3. High-school enrollment is
                           expected to increase with
                           another large cohort
                           entering 9th grade next year.




                                                           7
Fall 2023 Enrollment Forecast




                          *Enrollment data is by student address and
                          does not include students who live out-of-
                          district, or who have unknown addresses.
                          Regions were forecasted separately from the
                          total District.

                                                                        8
                       KEY TAKEAWAYS
• The enrollment forecast is an important component of budgeting and
  planning for the next school year.
•T D         ’      m      f          b    d        b     p p
 forecasting model.
• Enrollment is declining in part because of a lower number of births over
  the last several years. New housing is helping to moderate the decline.
• At least for next year, enrollment district-wide is expected to decrease.
• The DCSD enrollment forecast for FY24 is 91,829 students, or 843 lower
  than as FY23 enrollment.

                                                                              9
QUESTIONS


            10